Here in Italy, where I live, yesterday’s holiday is quiet holiday in the minds of only a small handful of Americans. There are no Fourth of July sales advertised in the newspapers, no fireworks at night. Businesses and government offices are open as normal.
But I kind of like having this and other — like President’s Day or Thanksgiving — “secret” holidays that very few people around here know about.
It reminds me a little of the way I look at baseball rankings. It’s around the halfway point in the season, and many fantasy baseball sites have come out with lists of the top hitters and pitchers based on projections over the rest of the season. If a guy on waivers is ranked ahead of your starter at some position, it’s tempting to make a switch.
But not so fast. There are other factors to be taken into consideration.
It’s important to remember that those rankings — aside from the fact that they’re based on projections that include a lot of guesswork — are based on scoring in a standard 5×5, 12-team roto format. If you’re in a head-to-head league, then most rankings will over-value base stealers compared to your needs. If your league is much shallower or deeper, or includes more or fewer scoring categories, then that warps the accuracy of rankings.
In fact, I rarely look at a player’s ranking unless it’s to sell a league mate on the value of a player I’m looking to trade. This works like a charm in holds leagues, where relievers are ranked based on ratios, ERA and WHIP, and their potential for saves or vulture wins. I have yet to find a ranking system that takes holds into account, meaning the system undervalues great holds guys like Mark Melancon or David Robinson who are blocked from getting saves by two of this season’s top closers. It makes it easier to pry one of these guys away in return for an inferior player.
Position eligibility is another factor not reflected in the rankings. In leagues with a shallow bench, I usually won’t carry two shortstops but I’ll make an exception if my backup shortstop can backup somewhere else as well: Erick Aybar and Nick Franklin are projected to have about similar stats over the rest of the season, but I’ll take Franklin every time if I’ve already got a good starter at shortstop because in most leagues he can be my backup second-baseman as well.
Next week I’ll talk about how I prefer to evaluate a player’s value to my team.
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If I write that my player focus this week is on Mets catcher Josh Thole, nobody will read to the end. So I’ll say it’s about R.A. Dickey instead, which is almost true.
Thole is owned in zero percent of Yahoo! leagues, which is about right. Through Thursday’s games, he’s hitting .133, with no homers, no steals. His career batting average is a little better, .257, but he’s basically played in two full seasons (290 games; 946 at-bats) spread over six years and have 7 homers, 2 steals, and an anemic .327 slugging percentage. I’m not telling you to pick him up, but I’m telling you to keep an eye on him if you own Dickey.
It’s been a little less frustrating to have the reigning NL Cy Young winner on your roster lately: he’s still have two bad games over six starts in the last month, but over the other four he’s allowed 3 ER and struck out 24 in 30 innings. I recognize I’m cherry-picking stats there, but that wasn’t even possible in April and May for Dickey, who had been a night mare for owners over the first two months of the season. The difference? A large part of it is that Thole got called up from the minors after Henry Blanco was demoted.
Those was traded to Toronto from the Mets in the same deal with Dickey with good reason: he can catch Dickey’s unpredictable knuckleball better than anyone. He started all but one of Dickey’s games with the Mets last year, and now he’s caught Dickey’s four best games with the Blue Jays this season. Since the start of 2012, Dickey’s ERA is nearly 3 points lower with Thole catching than without! I’ve heard Dickey say that with most other catchers, he’s worried about past balls — not exactly what a starter should be thinking about on the mound. Thole isn’t much of a hitter, but neither is the opposition most of the time when Dickey’s pitching and Thole is behind the plate.
What does this have to do with your fantasy team? If you have Dickey on your team, put Thole on your watch list. If he goes on bereavement leave or gets sick, it’s probably worth leaving Dickey on your bench until he gets back. And if he gets hurt and is expected to be out for a while, then see if you can sell Dickey quickly, before he ruins his trade value with another couple of stinkers thrown with John Buck behind the plate.
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